YPF (YPF) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2024 marked a transformational year, with the 4x4 plan driving a shift from mature conventional fields to a focus on shale oil, especially in Vaca Muerta, now representing over half of total production.

• Net revenues reached US$19.3B in 2024, up 11% year-over-year, driven by local fuel price recovery, increased oil exports, and shale oil expansion, despite a significant devaluation and lower fuel demand.

• Major progress in divesting mature assets, reallocating capital to more profitable shale operations, and implementing operational efficiencies across upstream and downstream segments.

• Record operational achievements in drilling, completion speed, and refinery utilization, with significant cost savings and productivity gains.

• Strategic expansion of midstream infrastructure, including the VMOS export pipeline and Oldelval capacity, to support future production and export growth.

Financial highlights

• Revenues reached US$19.3B in 2024, up 11% year-over-year, driven by higher fuel prices and oil exports.

• Adjusted EBITDA rose 15% to US$4.65B, with net income swinging to a US$2.39B gain from a US$1.28B loss in 2023.

• Free cash flow was negative US$760M, impacted by mature field losses, deferred import payments, and weather events.

• Net debt increased 9% to US$7.43B, but net leverage ratio improved to 1.6x.

• CAPEX totaled US$5.04B in 2024, with 63.5% allocated to unconventional (mainly shale) projects.

Outlook and guidance

• Sustained shale oil growth expected in 2025, with production already above 150,000 barrels/day and guidance for further increases.

• CapEx for 2025 targeted at US$5B, maintaining prior year levels but with a greater focus on unconventional assets.

• Free cash flow expected to be neutral in 2025, with more details to be provided at the April 11 Investor Day.

• VMOS oil export pipeline construction began in Jan-25, targeting 550 kbbl/d capacity by 2H27, with the company holding the largest initial shipping stake.

• Ongoing mature fields exit program, with multiple block transfers completed and more in negotiation.