YPF (YPF) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2025 marked a transformational year with record operating performance, strategic milestones, and near-completion of the exit from mature fields, despite a 15% drop in Brent prices.

• Achieved record-high adjusted EBITDA of $5.0 billion, up 8% year-over-year, driven by a 35% increase in shale oil production and a 26% reduction in lifting costs.

• Net revenues declined 4% year-over-year to $18.4 billion, mainly due to lower Brent prices, partially offset by record refinery processing and higher local fuel sales.

• Net loss for 2025 was $799 million, impacted by a $1 billion tax normalization payment and negative financial results.

• Major M&A activity, including acquisitions in Vaca Muerta and divestments of non-core assets, strengthened the portfolio and balance sheet.

Financial highlights

• Annual revenues reached $18.4 billion, down 4% year-over-year due to lower Brent prices, offset by higher shale production.

• Adjusted EBITDA rose 8% to $5.0 billion, with margin increasing from 24% to 27% year-over-year.

• Q4 adjusted EBITDA was nearly $1.3 billion, up 53% internally, driven by shale operations.

• Free cash flow for 2025 was negative $1.8 billion, mainly due to M&A activities, mature field exit costs, and infrastructure contributions.

• Net leverage ratio improved to 1.9x by year-end.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 shale oil production targeted at 215,000 barrels/day, with an exit rate of 250,000 barrels/day.

• Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 is $5.8–$6.2 billion, assuming Brent at $63/barrel.

• CapEx planned at $5.5–$5.8 billion, with 70% allocated to shale operations.

• Free cash flow expected to be neutral to slightly negative, offset by M&A proceeds, notably the planned Metrogas sale.

• Net leverage ratio projected to decline to 1.6–1.7x by end-2026.