The Mosaic Company (MOS) Investor Day 2025 summary

Strategic vision and business model evolution

• Strategy centers on normalizing production/costs, reallocating $2–$3 billion in capital, leveraging market access, and redefining growth with a focus on value over volume and specialty products.

• Market access is a core competitive advantage, with tailored approaches in North America, Brazil, China, and India, targeting $250–$330 million EBITDA uplift by 2030.

• Growth is shifting from asset expansion to earnings and cash generation through new products, digital transformation, and biosciences.

• No major M&A planned; capital allocation prioritizes high-return projects, sustaining CapEx, and shareholder returns via buybacks and dividends.

• Expanding performance product sales and distribution models in key markets, with new launches and margin-enhancing products planned.

Market outlook and demand drivers

• Global demand for phosphate and potash is projected to grow 8–10% by 2030, driven by population, income growth, and biofuel mandates, especially in Brazil, EU, and India.

• Phosphate supply is constrained by Chinese export restrictions and rising industrial demand, leading to a tighter market and constructive pricing.

• Potash supply faces near-term constraints due to slow ramp-ups and production cuts, with long-term demand requiring significant new capacity.

• Biologicals and performance products will improve nutrient use efficiency and yield without reducing fertilizer demand.

• Brazil is a key growth engine, with market share targeted to rise from 16% to 24% by 2030, supported by new blending facilities and strong customer relationships.

Operational improvements and digital transformation

• Investing $100 million to enhance asset reliability, with most projects completed by Q2 2025 and production volumes expected to return to capacity.

• Phosphate production is expected to reach 8 million tons by 2026, with unit costs targeted at $95–$100/ton by end-2025.

• Potash capacity will reach 9 million tons/year with new hydrofloat and compaction circuits, boosting high-margin product output.

• A $300 million digital transformation enables real-time supply chain, pricing, and margin optimization, with $70 million run-rate savings expected by year-end and $650 million EBITDA uplift targeted by 2026.

• Brazil operations are optimizing mine plans, reducing imported rock, and improving labor efficiency, targeting $100–$120 million in cost savings.