The Mosaic Company (MOS) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2025 net income was $238 million ($0.75 per diluted share), with adjusted EBITDA of $544 million, driven by higher phosphate prices, robust global demand, and significant cost improvements in Brazil.

• Mosaic Fertilizantes delivered its second-best first quarter ever, with operating earnings up 133% and adjusted EBITDA up 47% year-over-year, supported by cost reductions and efficiency gains.

• Major phosphate plant turnarounds were completed, with March marking one of the highest production months in 18 months, and production remains on track for full-year targets.

• Strategic capital reallocation and divestiture of non-core assets are underway, including asset sales and development of new processing capabilities.

• Mosaic Biosciences revenue more than doubled year-over-year, with strong global growth and new product launches such as Neptunion in China.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2025 consolidated revenues were $2.62 billion, with net income of $238 million and adjusted EBITDA of $544 million.

• Gross margin improved to 19% (up from 15% year-over-year), and operating cash flow was $43 million, a turnaround from negative $80 million in Q1 2024.

• Potash segment Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $240 million, phosphate $276 million, and Mosaic Fertilizantes $122 million.

• Capital expenditures totaled $341 million in Q1, with full-year guidance at $1.2–$1.3 billion.

• Cash and cash equivalents stood at $259 million, with total debt at about $4.6 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance: potash production 9.0–9.4 million tonnes, phosphate 7.2–7.6 million tonnes, Mosaic Fertilizantes sales 10.0–10.8 million tonnes (up ~15% from 2024).

• Q2 2025: potash sales volumes expected at 2.3–2.5 million tonnes, MOP prices $230–$250/tonne; phosphate sales 1.7–1.9 million tonnes, DAP prices $635–$655/tonne.

• Mosaic Fertilizantes Q2 sales volumes expected to be ~30% higher than Q1, with segment adjusted EBITDA to rise significantly.

• CapEx for 2025 expected at $1.2–$1.3 billion; free cash flow conversion to improve as the year progresses.

• Management expects liquidity and leverage ratios to remain within investment grade targets, with sufficient resources to fund operations, capital expenditures, and dividends.