The Mosaic Company (MOS) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Full-year 2025 net income was $541 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion, while Q4 saw a net loss of $519 million due to notable items and weak U.S. phosphate demand.

• Consolidated 2025 revenues reached $12.1 billion, with Q4 revenues at $3.0 billion.

• Significant cost and efficiency gains were achieved, with asset divestitures and a pending Carlsbad sale expected to yield $230 million and reduce asset retirement obligations by $60 million.

• Mosaic Biosciences net sales more than doubled to $68 million in 2025, with five new products launched and expectations to double sales again in 2026.

• Progress in asset reliability, cost efficiency, and capital allocation positions the company for improved performance in 2026.

Financial highlights

• Net sales for 2025 were $12.1 billion, up from $11.1 billion in 2024; Q4 net sales were $3.0 billion.

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $2.4 billion; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $505 million.

• Free cash flow for 2025 was negative $535 million, reflecting high capital expenditures and inventory build.

• Working capital reduced cash flow by $960 million in 2025, contributing to an $829 million increase in net debt.

• $900 million was raised in November 2025 through 3- and 5-year notes, with proceeds used to retire short-term commercial paper.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 capital expenditures expected at $1.5 billion, up from $1.36 billion in 2025, with total capex and ARO/environmental spend ~$1.85 billion.

• 2026 phosphate production volumes projected at or above 7 million tonnes; potash at approximately 9 million tonnes.

• Q1 2026 phosphate sales volumes expected at 1.7–1.9 million tonnes, DAP prices $640–$670/tonne; potash sales volumes 2.0–2.2 million tonnes, MOP prices $255–$275/tonne.

• Free cash flow after CapEx and other cash spend is expected to exceed the minimum dividend in 2026, enabling debt reduction and potential extraordinary shareholder returns.

• Adjusted effective tax rate for 2026 expected in the low-to-mid 30% range.