The Mosaic Company (MOS) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 2024 net income was $169 million and adjusted EBITDA was $594 million; full-year net income was $622 million and adjusted EBITDA $2.2 billion, with consolidated Q4 revenues of $2.8 billion and full-year revenues of $11.1 billion.

• Segment performance was mixed: Potash and Mosaic Fertilizantes saw year-over-year declines in adjusted EBITDA, while Phosphate improved.

• Strategic progress included asset sales, redeploying capital, and operational improvements, with a $522 million gain from the Ma'aden transaction.

• Cost savings initiatives achieved about half of the $150 million target, with further improvements expected.

• Returned $506 million to shareholders in 2024 through share repurchases and dividends.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 Potash sales volumes were 2.239 million mt, with MOP selling price at $199/mt; Phosphate sales volumes were 1.622 million mt, DAP price $593/mt.

• Mosaic Fertilizantes Q4 2024 sales volumes were 2.240 million mt, with average finished product price at $486/mt.

• Adjusted diluted EPS for Q4 2024 was $0.45; for the full year, $1.98.

• Gross margin rate for 2024 was 14%, down from 16% in 2023.

• $522 million gain from Ma'aden transaction and $642 million FX loss in 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 phosphate production guidance: 7.2–7.6 million tonnes; potash: 8.7–9.1 million tonnes.

• Q1 2025 phosphate sales volumes expected at 1.5–1.7 million tonnes, DAP prices $595–$615/tonne; potash sales 2.0–2.2 million tonnes, MOP prices $200–$220/tonne.

• 2025 capital expenditures projected at $1.2–$1.3 billion, with cost savings run rate target of $150 million expected by year-end.

• Market outlook for 2025 is positive, with strong crop prices and tight fertilizer markets.

• Adjusted effective tax rate projected in the high 20% range for Q1 and mid-to-high 20% for 2025.