The Mosaic Company (MOS) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2024 net income was $122 million and adjusted EBITDA $448 million, with revenues of $2.8–$2.81 billion, reflecting recovery from weather and operational disruptions and improved gross margin rate to 15% from 12% year-over-year.

• Phosphate production is on track for a 7.8–8.2 million tonne run rate by year-end 2024, and Mosaic Biosciences expanded to 9 million acres globally.

• CFO transition announced: Clint Freeland retiring, Luciano Siani Pires to assume CFO role in January 2025.

• Strategic projects, including Riverview MicroEssentials and Esterhazy compaction, completed; HydroFloat and Palmeirante projects on track for 2025.

• Share repurchases totaled $210 million year-to-date, with $415 million returned to shareholders in the first nine months.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2024 revenue: $2.8–$2.81 billion; net income: $122–$122.2 million; adjusted EBITDA: $448 million; gross margin: $416.8 million (up 2% YoY); adjusted EPS: $0.34.

• Year-to-date shareholder return: $415 million, including $210 million in share repurchases.

• Achieved $200 million CapEx reduction target for the year; 2024 capital expenditures projected at $1.1–$1.2 billion.

• Q3 2024 gross margin percentage: 15% (vs. 12% prior year); Q3 diluted EPS: $0.38.

• Cash and cash equivalents at September 30, 2024: $301.6 million; total debt: $4.0 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• Targeting annualized phosphate production run rate of 7.8–8.2 million tons by year-end; cost savings of $150 million annual run rate by end of 2025.

• Potash Q4 sales volume guidance: 2.2–2.4 million tons at $200–$220/ton; phosphate Q4: 1.6–1.8 million tons at $570–$590/ton.

• Fertilizer shipments in Brazil and globally expected to be near record levels in 2025, with strong demand and stable prices.

• 2024 capital expenditures expected at $1.1–$1.2 billion; SG&A at $500–$530 million.

• Management expects sufficient liquidity for operations and capital needs for the next 12 months and beyond.