The Mosaic Company (MOS) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q2 2025 net income was $411 million, reversing a prior year loss, with consolidated revenues of $3,006 million and adjusted EBITDA of $566 million, reflecting improved operational performance and cost efficiencies, especially in Brazil.

• Gross margin rose to $518.6 million, up 32% year-over-year, driven by higher average selling prices and cost reductions, particularly in Mosaic Fertilizantes.

• Strategic initiatives included cost reduction, capital reallocation, and expansion in Brazil, with the Palmeirante facility completed and Mosaic Biosciences revenue more than doubling year-over-year.

• Market environment remains strong, with tight supply supporting high phosphate margins and rising potash prices; full-year potash production guidance was raised.

• Net income benefited from foreign exchange gains ($220 million) and a $216 million unrealized gain on Ma'aden shares.

Financial highlights

• Q2 2025 net sales were $3,005.7 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $566 million and net income of $411 million, compared to a net loss of $162 million and adjusted EBITDA of $584 million in Q2 2024.

• Q2 2025 gross margin percentage was 17% (up from 14%); diluted EPS was $1.29, compared to $(0.50) in Q2 2024.

• Free cash flow for Q2 2025 was $305 million, with significant free cash flow expected in the second half of 2025.

• Cash and cash equivalents at June 30, 2025 were $286.2 million; total assets $24.3 billion; stockholders' equity $12.6 billion.

• Large non-cash provisions ($60+ million) impacted EBITDA, including bad debt, inventory adjustments, and asset write-offs.

Outlook and guidance

• Q3 2025 phosphate sales volumes expected at 1.8–2.0 million tonnes, DAP prices $700–$720/tonne; potash sales volumes 2.2–2.4 million tonnes, MOP prices $270–$290/tonne.

• Full-year 2025 guidance: phosphate production 6.9–7.2 million tonnes, potash 9.3–9.5 million tonnes, Mosaic Fertilizantes sales 10.0–10.8 million tonnes, capex $1.2–$1.3 billion.

• Mosaic Fertilizantes Q3 adjusted EBITDA expected above $200 million; significant free cash flow to be allocated to debt reduction, dividends, and share repurchases.

• No signs of a second-half price reset for phosphate or potash; tight markets expected to persist into 2026.

• Management expects liquidity and cash flow to remain sufficient for operations, capital expenditures, and dividends for the next 12 months and beyond.